D R A F T 07-07-2011
A P P E N D I X
Trends in Onondaga Lake Nearshore Monitoring Data
 Onondaga Lake Ambient Monitoring Program  - 2011 Report
prepared for
Ecologic, LLC
&
Onondaga County Department of Water Environment Protection
by
William W. Walker, Jr., Ph.D.
&
Jeffrey D. Walker, M.Eng.
Download Latest DRAFT  Main Report --> MS Word Version Acrobat PDF Version
Summary of Trend Analysis Results Trend Slopes in Percent Per Year May-September  1999-2010
      Freq. of Secchi Depth < 1.2 m Turbidity Fecal Coliform Bacteria E. Coli Bacteria
Site Description Dry Wet All Adj Dry Wet All Adj Dry Wet All Adj Dry Wet All Adj
9MILE Ninemile Creek -2 -2 -2 -2 -13 -12 -13 -12 1 -2 1 1 -5 -4 -6 -5
MAPLE Maple Bay -2 -2 -2 -2 -13 -13 -14 -13 3 -1 1 1 -1 -4 -2 -2
WIL Wilkenson -1 -2 -1 -1 -14 -12 -13 -13 1 -1 0 1 -4 -5 -4 -4
LKPK Lake Park -1 -3 -2 -2 -14 -13 -14 -14 1 -1 0 0 -6 -6 -7 -7
BLBRK Bloody Brook -7 -3 -3 -2 -17 -18 -18 -17 2 -16 -13 -6 -5 -14 -11 -5
LS_N All Northern Sites -1 -3 -2 -2 -14 -14 -14 -14 2 -1 0 1 -4 -4 -5 -4
LEY Ley Creek -4 -7 -7 -6 -16 -19 -17 -16 -1 -12 -7 -5 -2 -13 -9 -7
MID_S Mid South -3 -5 -3 -3 -13 -19 -16 -15 15 -1 9 10 3 -6 0 1
HARB Harbor Brook -3 -6 -5 -5 -13 -17 -15 -14 8 -2 -1 2 1 -2 -2 0
LS_S All Southern Sites -3 -6 -5 -5 -14 -18 -16 -15 7 -5 0 2 0 -9 -4 -2
LS_ALL All Lakeshore  -2 -3 -3 -2 -14 -15 -15 -14 5 2 3 4 -2 -5 -4 -3
SOUTH South Deep -2 -2 -2 -2 -5 -7 -5 -5 1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1
Significance levels      Decreasing p  < .05 p < .10         Increasing p<.05 p<.10           Trend Analysis Method:  LinearRegression
Trend Slopes expressed as % of values < 1.2 m per year for Secchi and % of long-term geometric mean for turbidity and bacteria
Dry/Wet samples classified based upon 3-day antecedent precipitation at Hancock Airport <> 0.2 inches
Adj. = All data adjusted for correlations with antecedent rainfall by linear regression before performing trend analysis.
Detailed Results Description
Library All Files
Trend Summary for Each Method Repeats Above Table for Each Statistical Method (Linear Regression, Mann-Kendall, Seas.-Kendall)
Means & Trends by Region Long-Term Means and Trends by Lake Region for Each Variable
Yearly Time Series Wet vs. Dry Weather;    All Values;   All vs. Adjusted Values
Monthly Time Series Wet vs. Dry Weather;    All Values;   All vs. Adjusted Values
Weekly Time Series Wet vs. Dry Weather;    All Values;   All vs. Adjusted Values
Box Plots - Site vs. Weather Frequency Distributions by Site & Weather (Long-Term Sites)
Box Plots - Site vs. Weather - All Frequency Distributions by Site & Weather (including WBEDS and OC_OUT)
Means by Site & Weather Long-term Nearshore and South Deep Sites (2002-2010);  Sorted Clockwise
Means by Site & Weather - All Sites All Nearshore Sites (Including Allied Waste Beds & Onondaga Creek Outlet)
Regressions vs Antecedent Rainfall Regression Slopes; Scatter Charts; Rainfall vs. Year;
Trend Slopes  1999-2010 Trend Slopes vs. Weather, Site, and Statistical Method, 1999-2010 data
Trend Slopes  2002-2010 Trend Slopes vs. Weather, Site, and Statistical Method, 2002-2010 data
Statistical Summary 1999-2010 Statistical Summary of Trend Analysis Results by Site, Variable, and Weather, 1999-2010 data
Hydrologic Conditions Rainfall Frequency Distributions, Time Series, and Correlations with Lake Inflow
AMP Database Time Series  Time Series Analysis Output by Site & Variable, AMP Water Quality Database,  All Samples
AMP Statistical Framework Analysis of Variance, Trends by Season, AMP Statistical Framework, All Samples
Trends at Lake & Tributary Sites AMP Water Quality Database, All Lake and Tributary Sites Download AMP Database Output Viewer
AMP Database: Fecal Coliform Trends at Lake & Tributary Sites (2001-2010)
All Sites - Samples All Sites - Monthly
Metro Discharge Metro Bypass East Flume Onondaga - Dorwin Onondaga - Kirkp Trib 5A Lake South
Harbor - Velasko Harbor - Hiawatha Ninemile Creek Ley Creek Adams Outlet 2 ft Lake North
Software Packages Used in This Analysis
R Project Software R General Library R Water Quality Library GGPlot AMP Water Quality Database
Reference Links
Onondaga County Dept of Environmental Protection - Ambient Monitoring Program
Ecologic, LLC W.W. Walker Walker AMP Reports
AMP 2010 Report Index (Data thru 2009) AMP 2010 Report AMP 2010  Appendix Library
Summary & Regulatory Requirements Lake Status Recreational Quality (Nearshore Data)
Metrics (Performance Measures) Tributary Bacteria Loads (Sec 05) Wet Weather Sampling
Wet & Dry Weather Sampling AMP 2011 Monitoring Design Statistical Framework (2007)
Water Quality Database Database Output Viewer
Variable Index
Variable Description Units Transf Goals Notes
SECCHI Secchi Depth m - >1.2 m Guidance value (4 ft);.often constrained by lake bottom
FREQ SECCHI < 1.2 m Percent of Values % - ~0% % of Values Meeting NYSDEC Guidance Value (4 ft), Class B Segments
TURB Turbidity NTU log10 Good Surrogate for Secchi Depth (5 NTU ~ 4 ft = 1.2 meters)
FCOLI Fecal Coliforms cfu/100 ml log10 < 200 Geometric Mean of At Least 5 Samples Per Month, Class B Segments
FREQ_FCOLI > 100 Percent of Values % - Frequency of High Values (50% of Standard)
ECOLI E Coli cfu/100 ml log10 Constrained >= 5 to reflect changes in detection limits
Long-Term Monitoring Network for Onondaga Lake Established ~ 1968 : "before Earth Day & Clean Water Act"
Map Label Description Class Start Region
Lake Nearshore Sites (Sorted Clockwise) Pooled Nearshore Sites 
14 WBEDS Allied Waste Beds B 2006 North LS_S Average of South Shore C
6 9MILE Off NineMile Creek C 1999 North LS_N Average of North Shore  B
12 MAPLE Maple Bay B 1999 North LS_ALL All Nearshore Sites B/C
11 WIL Willow Bay B 1999 North
10 LKPK Lake Park B 1999 North
13 BLBRK Bloody Brook B 1999 North
9 LEY Ley Creek C 1999 South
8 MID_S Mid South, Metro  C 1999 South
14 HARB Harbor Brook C 1999 South
15 OC_OUT Mouth of Onondaga Creek C 2008
Lake & Tributary Sites
4 SOUTH Lake Pelagic - South Deep <1990
http://static.ongov.net/WEP/wepdf/2009_AMP-FINAL/Main%20Document/Rev%202_Nov2010_files/image054.gif
5 NORTH Lake Pelagic - North Deep <1990
29 OUTLET12 Lake Outlet - 12 ft ~ Lake Net Discharge <1990
29 OUTLET2 Lake Outlet - 2 ft ~ Mixed with Seneca R. <1990
28 BLBRK Bloody Brook <1990
30 PARK Ley Creek at Park Street <1990
20 METRO Metro Discharge - Tertiary Tmt <1990
21 BYPASS Metro - Bypass - Primary Tmt) <1990
17 DORWIN Onondaga Creek - Dorwin Ave  <1990
21 KIRKPAT Onondaga Creek - Kirkpatrick - Mouth <1990
26 VELASKO Harbor Brook - Velasko Road  <1990
23 HIAWATHA Harbor Brook - Hiawatha Blvd <1990
24 RT48 Ninemile Creek <1990
07-07-2011 http://www.wwwalker.net/onondaga/report_2011/index.htm